Marketing · Guide
Route to Market in Kenya: A Sales Manager’s Playbook for Turning Distribution Into Sell-Out
Where product gets lost between your distributor and the shopper in Kenya, which BTL activity closes each gap, and how to prove it paid back.
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Route to market (RTM) is the system that gets your product from the factory into the hands of the people who buy it: which channels you sell through, who carries the stock, how often each outlet is served, and what happens at the point of sale. In Kenya, where most FMCG volume moves through dukas, kiosks and open-air markets, the plan usually breaks in the last metre, not the last mile. Below-the-line (BTL) activity is the tool that fixes it, if it is briefed against sales numbers rather than footfall.
This guide is for the person who carries the number: the national sales manager, the RTM manager, the trade marketing lead. It covers where product gets lost, which BTL activity closes each gap, and how to prove the money came back.
What is route to market, and where does BTL fit?
Route to market is the full path from your warehouse to the shopper, plus the people and money that keep it moving. It answers four questions: which channels you sell in, who serves each outlet, how often, and at what cost.
BTL (below-the-line) marketing is the paid activity that happens inside that path rather than above it in media: trade activations with distributors and wholesalers, in-store activations, product sampling, merchandising, roadshows and brand ambassadors. Above-the-line advertising creates demand. BTL makes sure that demand finds stock, sees it, tries it and buys it again. Our guide to below-the-line marketing in Kenya covers the full toolkit.
The practical difference for a sales manager is this. A TV flight is judged on reach. A BTL programme should be judged on the same numbers your sales team is judged on: outlets stocking, stock-outs, shelf presence and units sold.
Why is route to market harder in Kenya than the plan suggests?
Because the shop that matters most is the smallest one. TechnoServe’s research on Kenya’s micro-retail sector estimates that the informal channel carries about 70% of retail sales and about 80% of FMCG sales, and that roughly 95% of Kenyans shop at dukas. The national RTM plan is usually built around distributors and supermarket listings. Volume is decided across tens of thousands of counters.
Four features make the Kenyan last metre hard:
- Fragmentation. A distributor can cover a territory and still miss most of the outlets in it. A duka owner stocks what sells fast, what the distributor’s van brings, and what they can afford that week.
- Credit and cash flow. Small retailers buy little and often. A new SKU has to earn its place on a shelf that is already full, with money the owner does not have spare.
- Distributor capability. The biggest distributor is not always the best operator. Coverage on paper and visits on the ground are often different numbers.
- Channel shift. Modern trade keeps growing, and the informal channel keeps adapting with M-Pesa, mobile ordering and new models such as Mars Wrigley’s Maua network of neighbourhood sellers. Your RTM has to work in both at once.
None of this is fixed with a bigger media budget. It is fixed outlet by outlet.
Where does product get lost between your distributor and the shopper?
In five places. We call them the Five Gaps. Each one has a symptom you can see in your sales data, a metric that measures it, and a BTL activity built to close it.
| Gap | What you see in the numbers | Metric to track | BTL activity that closes it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Reach | Distributor reports strong coverage, but sales are concentrated in a few towns | Numeric distribution (% of outlets stocking) | Trade and distributor activations, roadshows for rural and peri-urban towns |
| 2. Range | The outlet stocks your brand but not the SKU or pack size that sells there | Must-stock list compliance, weighted distribution | Field marketing teams with an outlet-level must-stock list |
| 3. Visibility | Stock is in the outlet but in the back, under the counter or behind a competitor | Share of shelf, planogram compliance | Retail and in-store activations, merchandising, POS |
| 4. Trial | Shoppers walk past a brand they have never tasted, used or understood | Trial rate, conversion at the point of sale | Product sampling and demos |
| 5. Repeat | Strong launch weeks, then the rate of sale falls and the retailer stops reordering | Rate of sale per outlet, reorder rate, out-of-stock rate | Brand ambassadors on a follow-up cycle, retailer incentives |
The order matters. Sampling in an outlet that will not have stock next week builds frustration, not a habit. Fix reach and range before you pay for trial.
Which channel needs which kind of activation?
Each channel sells differently, so each needs a different job done in it.
| Channel | What wins there | Best-fit BTL | Number to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| General trade (dukas, kiosks) | Availability, retailer margin, the owner’s recommendation | Retailer activations, must-stock drives, small-pack sampling | Numeric distribution, strike rate |
| Wholesalers and stockists | Credit terms, fast turnover, relationships | Trade activations, wholesaler incentives, launch briefings | Sell-in to sell-out ratio |
| Modern trade (supermarkets) | Shelf position, promotions, in-aisle theatre | In-store activations, demos, gondola-end merchandising | Share of shelf, rate of sale per store |
| Open-air markets and estates | Price, trust, word of mouth | Market storms, roadshows, community sampling | Trial rate, outlet pick-up after the event |
| On-trade and HoReCa | Staff recommendation, visibility at the bar | Bar and outlet activations, staff incentives | Outlet listing, reorders |
| Campuses | Early brand habits, peer influence | Campus activations | Sign-ups, redemptions, nearby outlet sales |
How should a sales manager brief a BTL agency?
With a sales problem, not an event. The best briefs we receive read like a sales plan. Seven things belong in it:
- The gap you are closing. Reach, range, visibility, trial or repeat, from the table above. One primary gap per campaign.
- The outlet list. Named outlets or a defined universe by town and channel, not “Nairobi and environs”.
- The baseline. Current numeric distribution, rate of sale or stock-out rate in those outlets. Without it, nothing can be proven later.
- A control group. Comparable outlets that will not be activated. This is what separates real uplift from seasonality.
- Stock confirmation. Written confirmation from the distributor that stock will be in every activated outlet before day one.
- The data you need back. Outlet visit logs with GPS and time, photos of shelf before and after, units sold or sampled, retailer feedback. Agree the format before launch.
- The decision it informs. Scale, adjust or stop. If the result will not change a decision, it is a cost, not a test.
How do you know an activation paid back?
By measuring incremental units against a control group, then dividing cost by them. Reach, footfall and samples handed out are activity measures. They tell you the team turned up. They do not tell you it worked.
The core numbers:
- Numeric distribution: the share of outlets in the universe that stock your product.
- Weighted distribution: the same, weighted by each outlet’s category sales, so a busy duka counts for more than a quiet one.
- Strike rate: the share of outlet visits that end in an order.
- Rate of sale: units sold per outlet per week.
- Cost per incremental unit: campaign cost divided by the extra units sold in activated outlets compared with control outlets.
A worked example (illustrative figures). A beverage brand activates 120 general-trade outlets for six weeks at a cost of KES 2.4 million. Before launch, both activated and control outlets sell 40 units per outlet per week. During the campaign activated outlets average 52, and for four weeks afterwards they hold at 46. Control outlets stay at 40.
- Incremental units during the campaign: 120 outlets × 12 extra units × 6 weeks = 8,640
- Incremental units in the four weeks after: 120 × 6 × 4 = 2,880
- Total incremental units: 11,520
- Cost per incremental unit: KES 2,400,000 ÷ 11,520 ≈ KES 208
If the brand’s gross margin is KES 60 a unit, the campaign did not pay back on ten weeks of sales alone. That is not automatically a failure. The question becomes whether it bought something that lasts: new outlets that keep reordering, a higher baseline rate of sale, a SKU now listed where it was not. If those gains persist, the payback runs over months. If they do not, the next campaign should cost less per outlet or target a different gap.
This is the conversation a sales manager should be able to have with their agency after every campaign.
What should a 90-day route-to-market activation plan look like?
Three phases, each with a decision at the end:
- Days 1–14: audit. Visit a sample of outlets in the target universe. Record stocking, range, shelf position and price. Confirm which of the Five Gaps is the binding constraint. Agree baseline and control outlets.
- Days 15–60: execute. Run the activation against the primary gap only. Collect outlet-level data weekly, not at the end. Fix stock-outs with the distributor in real time.
- Days 61–90: read and decide. Compare activated outlets with control. Calculate cost per incremental unit and the change in numeric distribution. Scale what worked to the next region, change what did not, and stop what cannot be measured.
What are the most common route-to-market mistakes we see?
- Paying for trial before fixing availability. The shopper likes the sample, then cannot find the product.
- Measuring samples, not sales. “50,000 consumers reached” is a delivery report, not a result.
- Choosing distributors by name, not capability. Ask for visit data per outlet, not a coverage map.
- One activation for every channel. A supermarket demo and a duka must-stock drive are different jobs with different costs.
- No control group. Without one, a good month and a good campaign look the same.
- Ignoring the retailer. In general trade the owner is the most influential salesperson you have. Activations that give them nothing get forgotten when the team leaves.
Frequently asked questions
What is route to market in FMCG?
Route to market is how a product travels from the manufacturer to the shopper: the channels used, the distributors and wholesalers that carry stock, how often each outlet is served and what happens at the point of sale. A good RTM maximises the outlets stocking your product at the lowest cost per outlet served.
What is the difference between route to market and distribution?
Distribution is the physical movement of stock. Route to market is the wider commercial plan that includes distribution plus channel choice, outlet coverage, pricing through the chain and point-of-sale execution.
How does BTL marketing support route to market?
BTL closes the gaps distribution leaves open: getting new outlets to list a product, making sure the right SKUs are on the shelf, making the product visible, getting shoppers to try it and keeping retailers reordering. Each of these can be measured against sales data.
What is numeric distribution?
Numeric distribution is the percentage of outlets in a defined universe that stock your product. If 600 of 2,000 dukas in a territory carry your brand, numeric distribution is 30%.
How do you measure the ROI of a brand activation in Kenya?
Compare sales in activated outlets with a matched group of outlets that were not activated, over the campaign and for several weeks after. Divide the campaign cost by the extra units sold to get cost per incremental unit, then compare it with your margin per unit and with any lasting gain in distribution.
How much of FMCG in Kenya is sold through informal retail?
Research cited by TechnoServe estimates about 80% of FMCG sales in Kenya go through the informal channel of dukas, kiosks and markets, and about 95% of Kenyans shop at dukas.
What is the difference between experiential marketing and BTL?
BTL is the full set of below-the-line activity inside the route to market, from distributor incentives to merchandising. Experiential marketing is the part of BTL built around a live brand experience: a pop-up, a launch, a sampling zone people step into. Every experiential campaign is BTL; not every BTL campaign is experiential. See our guide to choosing an experiential marketing agency in Kenya and our experiential services.
Talk to the team that runs it
Red Giant has run activations across Kenya’s trade and retail channels since 2014: distributor launches, in-store programmes, sampling, roadshows and brand ambassador teams, with outlet-level reporting your sales team can use. If you can name the gap, we can price the fix. See our BTL and activation services.
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